GfK: German consumer sentiment stays on an upward trend.
A survey from the GfK institute on Tuesday showed that the mood of German consumers will get better for the fourth month in a row in February as energy prices go down.
The institute said that its consumer sentiment index rose from a revised reading of -37.6 in January to -33.9 at the start of February. This was just a little bit lower than what analysts polled by Reuters had predicted, which was -33.0.
Rolf Buerkl, a GfK consumer expert, said that the mood of consumers has become less gloomy because the prices of gasoline and heating oil have gone down. But he warned that the German economy will still be in bad shape in 2023.
Buerkl said that private consumption won’t be able to help the economy grow this year, which is shown by the fact that the indicator is still at a very low level.
Related: The mood of German consumers drops to a new record low-GfK
The income expectations sub-index showed a clear rise in January, and the economic expectations sub-index went back to pre-war levels. But people’s willingness to buy has gone up and down over the last few months and is now getting weaker.
FEB 2023 JAN 2023 FEB 2022
Consumer climate scores are 33.9, 37.6, and 6.7.
Consumer climate components Jan 2023, Dec 2022, Jan 2022
Intent to Buy: 18.7 -16.3 5.2
– Income expectations: -32.2 to -43.4 to 16.9
Expectations for the business cycle: -0.6 -10.3 22.8
NOTE: The survey was done from January 5 to January 16, 2023.
The consumer climate indicator predicts how real private spending will change over the next month.
When an indicator is above zero, it means that private consumption has grown from one year to the next. When compared to the same time last year, a value below zero shows a drop.
GfK says that a change of one point in the indicator is equal to a change of 0.1% in private consumption from one year to the next.
The “willingness to buy” indicator shows how many people answered “yes” and “no” to the question, “Is now a good time to buy big things?”
The income expectations sub-index shows how people think their household finances will change in the next 12 months.
The additional business cycle expectations index shows how people think the economy will be doing over the next 12 months.