London- The winter World Cup has made the Christmas sales forecasts of Britain’s supermarkets even less certain: How do you get people who are short on cash to buy yule logs and luxury cookies along with beer and pizza?
The soccer tournament in Qatar runs from November 20 to December 18. This is right in the middle of the busy holiday shopping season, when the fiercely competitive soccer industry usually makes a big chunk of its annual profit.
In the same way, World Cups, which are usually held in the summer in the northern hemisphere, tend to give a big boost to British supermarkets as people stock up on beers, wines, and spirits; they also barbecue food and snacks, and host big parties.
But shoppers’ confidence was already at a record low before the government’s new economic plan, which has since been changed, caused mortgage rates to skyrocket and sparked fears of a sharp drop in house prices that would make the cost-of-living crisis even worse.
This means that the total cost is likely to be less than if the two events were spaced out over several months.
Store executives say that moving the World Cup to the winter to avoid the hot summers in Qatar has completely messed up the algorithms they use to predict sales and plan their logistics.
“It’s a nightmare for getting any good out of it,” said a veteran of the grocery business who asked to remain anonymous.
“It’s also a problem in terms of how to do it,” he said. “Right when you want everything Christmas-y to be out, you have to find a way to show people drinking and eating for the World Cup.”
There is also a chance that people will be too busy watching soccer to feel Christmassy and won’t start shopping for Christmas until after the tournament, which could make for a crazy last week of business, he said.
The CEO of Britain’s biggest store, Tesco (OTC:TSCDY), Ken Murphy, told reporters this month, “This is a bit of a curve ball in terms of how you plan for Christmas and the World Cup at the same time.”
Another factor will be if England keeps playing badly and doesn’t make it out of the first group of games. For now, supermarkets are setting up their stores assuming that England and Wales, which have also qualified, do well.
But they have a Plan B. When the home nations leave, the space where beer, snacks, and soccer gear are sold can quickly be filled with Christmas Champagne, Prosecco, gifts, and decorations.
But executives say that planning is made harder by a law that came into effect in England on October 1 and limits where foods high in fat, salt, or sugar can be sold in stores.
The new rules say that products that aren’t as healthy, like candy, can’t be put in places like the entrance, checkout, end of an aisle, and their online equivalents.
Tesco plans to put up special signs in its stores to let people know what products and deals are on sale for football parties. This will be different from the space set aside for Christmas items.
Market researcher Kantar says that during the last World Cup in July 2018, when there was a long stretch of hot weather, 13 million more people went to supermarkets in the UK.
It said that, excluding Christmas and Easter weeks, more money than ever was spent on alcohol during the week in July 2018 when England beat both Colombia and Sweden. This was about 287 million pounds.
In a similar way, people spent $1.4 billion on alcohol at supermarkets during last year’s Euro 2020 soccer tournament, which was delayed because of the coronavirus pandemic. England made it to the final at London’s Wembley Stadium.
Customers who went to stores to buy holiday items could, of course, also buy World Cup items. But because people’s budgets are tight, supermarkets are getting ready for less of a sales boom.
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Food stores in the UK are already under a lot of pressure because of rising prices and changing shopping habits. This month, Tesco cut its profit forecast, and last month, Morrisons, the Co-op, and Aldi UK all said their profits had gone down.
Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Kantar, said, “It won’t be as big as the summer World Cup.”
But he said that one thing that could be good for supermarkets is if Britons stopped going to bars and watched more games at home with drinks.
For now, executives are trying to look strong.
Giles Hurley, CEO of Aldi UK, said, “If one of the home nations performs, it could make for a really interesting party.”
“I’m very sure that people in Britain will celebrate Christmas this year.”
How far England goes in the tournament will determine a lot.
“We know from other events, like the women’s Euros, that it depends a lot on how England does,” said Kantar’s McKevitt.
“If England does well, more people will watch, celebrate, and buy things.”
As usual, the market leader, Tesco, seems to be in the best position, with a foot in both retail and wholesale.
“As long as people are having fun, we don’t care if they celebrate in a pub or at home. If they celebrate in a pub, we serve them through Booker. If they celebrate at home, we serve them through Tesco. “We’re making plans for that,” said Murphy. 1 dollar equals 0.8814 pounds
