Since surviving the catastrophe of the FTX collapse, brave bitcoin has been keeping steady and building up the strength to soar to the dizzying heights of $30,000 in 2023.
Since being slammed by the FTX crash, battered bitcoin has been immobile, taking a deep, ragged breath before tumbling toward the lows of $5,000.
Make your wagers and turn the wheel.
In the spooky wake of the FTX-caused market mini-crash in November, the leading cryptocurrency in the world has been strangely quiet for the past two weeks, hovering between $15,770 and $17,350.
Who knows what will happen next?
Are there any sellers left in this market? That’s the question we need to be asking ourselves right now. According to me, there aren’t very many remaining,” said the co-founder of the retail investor services company Pluto, Jacob Sansbury.
Related: According to the cryptoverse, Bitcoin wants to sever its ties to stocks.
Sansbury thinks that the majority of overleveraged miners, who frequently own significant amounts of bitcoin, have sold their holdings in order to settle traditional currency loans used to support their operations and equipment.
Indeed, the recent tranquilly in the price of bitcoin may be due to the fact that there are fewer coins available for sale: according to data from Coinglass, there are currently 1.97 million bitcoins available for trading, a sharp decline from 2.33 million at the beginning of the year.
Major offloading has already occurred; according to Glassnode data, a 7-day realised loss of $10.16 billion in bitcoin investments occurred in November as a result of investors being compelled to sell long-term positions. This loss ranked fourth in history by this metric.
The cryptocurrency has already experienced a decline of more than 60% in 2022, and its first yearly loss since 2018 is anticipated.
According to on-chain statistics, many of the remaining investors are putting their bitcoins into offline “cold storage,” which should support a floor price of about $16,000, said Bob Ras, co-founder of Sologenic, an exchange and digital asset company.
“It’s difficult to imagine Bitcoin going considerably lower,” he continued, “barring any further market surprises.”
Ras thinks that the price of bitcoin would be close to $25,000 right now if it weren’t for this year’s high-profile failures of cryptocurrency players FTX, Celsius, and Terra.
But since this is cryptocurrency, there may be more surprises in store, as there are several possible selling catalysts in the near future.
A Bearian Story
The first potential concern is that as mining becomes more expensive, more bitcoin miners may be forced to sell their holdings in order to survive.
According to Ben McMillan, chief investment officer at IDX Digital Assets, “miners as a group start to become unprofitable at $20,000, so we’re below that point.”
The amount of bitcoin retained in miners’ wallets, as measured by CrytpoQuant’s miner reserve indicator, has decreased by around 7,722 bitcoin since November.
Market participants also raised issues with the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, the biggest bitcoin fund in the world with $10.9 billion in assets. Genesis Trading’s parent business, Digital Currency Group, owes $575 million to Genesis’ cryptocurrency lending division, as the CEO of DCG disclosed to shareholders on November 22.
According to statistics from Coinglass, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust’s discount to its net asset value is at a record low of 48%, and shares haven’t traded at a premium since March 2021.
While Grayscale insisted that everything was continuing as normal and that its underlying assets were untouched, DCG stated last month that difficulties with Genesis’ loan business had no bearing on DCG and its subsidiaries.
In reference to the potential for Grayscale to experience financial difficulties, McMillan remarked, “This might be the next shoe to drop.” That said, it would be a positive sign going into 2023 if bitcoin could maintain the $15,000 level through the DCG workout.
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At its final meeting of the year on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve may be more hawkish than anticipated, which could further reduce risk appetite and hurt bitcoin’s prospects.
ADVANCED TECHNICAL
VanEck and Standard Chartered (OTC: SCBFF) alternately warned about the long-shot prospects of bitcoin skyrocketing to $30,000 or plunging to $5,000 in 2023.
Technical signs suggested by a number of researchers suggest that bitcoin may have found support between $16,000 and $16,800.
According to Eddie Tofpik, head of technical research at ADM Investor Services, the cryptocurrency could possibly encounter resistance near the $17,490 mark, warning that any long-term rally would likely be difficult.
Every time we witness a rally, he claims, “It’s one step up and then two or three steps down.”
In the wake of the unrest in November, long-term wagers may be alluring, according to Arcane Research analyst Vetle Lunde.
But uncertainty still abounds.
“Keep in mind that significant declines sometimes lead to a protracted period of directionlessness, indifference, and incomprehensible second-guessing,” said Lunde.
