The approaching fourth Bitcoin halving stands as a significant milestone for the cryptocurrency and its stakeholders. Scheduled every 210,000 blocks, this event slashes the rate of new coin issuance by 50%, making it one of the most eagerly anticipated occurrences in the Bitcoin calendar. While the next BTC halving is set for block height 840,000, the precise date remains uncertain due to the inherent variability and probabilistic nature of mining blocks. Glassnode, an on-chain analytics start-up, projects the halving to occur in 158 days, around April 23, 2024, based on the current average block interval.
Beyond its technical significance, the Bitcoin halving holds appeal for investors, with past halvings correlating with robust market performance in the subsequent 365 days. Glassnode’s on-chain analyst, “Checkmatey,” notes Bitcoin’s exceptional yearly return profile of over 400% following previous halving events. However, it’s crucial to acknowledge that past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. Despite this, a recent Glassnode analysis suggests a bullish outlook for Bitcoin. Examining the 90-day change in illiquid supply, Glassnode observes a consistent uptrend in illiquid balances across all previous halving instances. This indicates heightened investor buy-side activity leading up to and during the halving, often surpassing the rate of issuance both before and after the event.
