In a remarkable change of events, Prime Minister Imran Khan nominated Parvez Elahi as Punjab’s chief minister on Monday evening. Elahi is the leader of the PML-Q, a political party in Punjab that is part of Khan’s PTI. This party is also in Punjab.
As of right now, five people from the PML-Q represent the country in Congress and ten in the provincial assembly in Punjab.
This vote is critical for the PTI administration, which is attempting to thwart the Opposition’s effort to depose the Prime Minister through a motion of no-confidence.
For the time being, the situation at the centre is fluid. Every day, there are signs that the balance of power could change in any direction on the day that there is a no-confidence vote.
However, by nominating Elahi, can the PTI ensure stability in Punjab?
Is Elahi even eligible to run for the provincial assembly? The renegade PTI members of the provincial assembly (MPAs), headed by the Jahangir Tareen group, are a significant role in the province. Which way will they vote?
Elahi needs how many votes?
Elahi will need to get 186 votes, or a simple majority, from the 371 members of the Punjab Assembly to become the next chief minister.
What is the current state of the breakup?
The governing coalition now has 194 members, including the PTI, Rah-e-Haq, and the PML-Q, which are all part of the coalition together.
- PML-Q — 10
- PTI — 183
- Rah-e-Haq — 1
Total: 194
On the other hand, the opposition, comprised of the PML-N and the PPP, has 172 seats.
- PML-N — 165
- PPP — 7
Total: 172
Separately, the assembly includes five independents.
Who has the ability to sway the vote?
Elahi now has more than enough votes, above the 186 required, to win the chief ministership. This, however, is only true if the whole governing coalition votes for Elahi.
What might put a kink in the works for the chief minister candidate is the Jahangir Tareen faction, which claims to have around 20 members of parliament. All of these MPAs are members of the governing PTI.
If these factors work against Elahi, he will need to wrest a few MPAs from the PML-N in order to go to the top.
The PTI already claims to have five members of Parliament from the PML-N and one from the PPP in Punjab, whom they believe have defected from the Opposition camp.
Elahi might possibly seek assistance from the Punjab assembly’s five independents: Jugnu Mohsin, Ahmad Ali Aulakh, Bilal Warraich, Qasim Abbas, and Chaudhry Nisar.